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              苻堅淝水之戰 一場關于史上最蹊蹺的戰敗

              時間:2018-12-12  來源:追溯傳統文化  作者:佚名    評論:  【國學  收藏  糾錯

                苻堅的部隊集結在淝水西岸,和晉軍隔河對峙。當時苻堅部隊共有多少人,一直說法各異。苻融的軍團共有三十萬人(此處采用《資治通鑒》的記載,另有說法是二十五萬),苻堅從項城又帶來了八千騎兵。但是苻融派出過三萬人的部隊前往荊州,此外在洛澗又損失了一些兵馬,并留下一些軍隊駐守壽春。如此一來,淝水岸邊的前秦軍隊差不多應該有二十多萬人。uWn歷史春秋網 - 專注于中國古代歷史

                這二十多萬軍隊集結于一地,對將領的指揮能力是一個很大的考驗。苻堅部隊里云集了各族的軍人,編制非常復雜。秦軍精銳必是氐人士卒,他們多半集中在苻融指揮的中軍。此外大軍中更有諸多漢人、鮮卑人、羌人、烏桓人,他們對“非我族類”的氐人帝國未必有多強烈的效忠心,多半還是“畏威而來”—因為害怕官府,不得不上陣打仗。uWn歷史春秋網 - 專注于中國古代歷史

                種族上的紛雜必然會增加編制的復雜性,指揮起來也勢必更加困難。光是語言就是一個問題:各族語言不同,也未必都會說漢語,苻融的命令很可能要先翻譯成不同的語言才能下達。這二十多萬人來自五花八門的種族,又多半沒有受過正規訓練,如今在淝水岸邊擠作一團,即便神仙做他們的指揮官,只怕也很難調度自如。uWn歷史春秋網 - 專注于中國古代歷史

                雙方沿淝水嚴陣以待,一時倒都沒什么舉動。這時,苻融收到謝玄寫的一封信。謝玄出身于士族,筆下十分來得,信寫得很是雅麗。他在信中說:“君懸軍深入,置陣逼水,此持久之計,豈欲戰者乎?若小退師,令將士周旋,仆從與君公緩轡而觀之,不亦美乎?”翻譯過來就是說:“您孤軍深入,在淝水邊擺開陣勢,難道您還要打持久戰嗎?那多不好。如果您肯稍微往后退一下軍,騰出點地方,讓小的們好好打一架。咱們悠然觀戰,豈不美哉?”uWn歷史春秋網 - 專注于中國古代歷史

                謝玄的打算是盡快決戰。按照計劃,他將率領八千精銳部隊渡河作戰,如果形勢順利,后續主力就渡河發動大規模后續攻擊。如果失利,也可以有主力做接應。uWn歷史春秋網 - 專注于中國古代歷史

                對謝玄的要求,前秦領導層有很大的分歧,大家多半認為這里有問題,應該嚴詞拒絕。但是,苻堅和苻融認為,等晉軍渡河到一半的時候,讓騎兵向他們發起沖鋒,哪有不大獲全勝的道理?因此,苻堅下令軍隊后撤。uWn歷史春秋網 - 專注于中國古代歷史

                苻堅的想法看上去并沒有錯誤,秦軍以逸待勞,用騎兵對付渡河晉軍,在戰術上當然占有很大優勢。但是他忽略了一點:他有沒有能力讓自己的軍隊秩序井然地后撤。他只考慮了對岸的敵人,而沒有認識到自己身邊的這二十多萬人可能是更危險的敵人。uWn歷史春秋網 - 專注于中國古代歷史

                后撤指令下達了,一場巨大混亂隨即爆發。uWn歷史春秋網 - 專注于中國古代歷史

                我們可以設想一個普通士兵,在這場撤退中會有什么感受。他置身于二十多萬人中間,放眼望去,四面八方都是密密麻麻的人海。他一直生活在北方,原本做夢也想不到自己會到這個叫淝水的地方來。他知道馬上就要爆發一場血戰,自己很可能會戰死在這個陌生的地方。對岸的晉軍到底有多厲害,他沒有把握,但是聽說不久前發生的洛澗之戰自己這邊死了很多人。想起這些,當然會讓他高度緊張,而周圍人口密度偏又如此之大,這不但不會緩解他的壓力,只會弄得他更緊張。恐懼在人與人之間是可以互相傳遞、逐漸放大的。uWn歷史春秋網 - 專注于中國古代歷史

                有些指揮官的話他可能聽不懂,即便隊長和他操同一語言,他能聽得懂,也很難理解。領導認為,大家應該后撤某個距離,好讓晉軍渡河,然后返回身來對晉軍作戰,把他們趕到河里去。對他來講這個說法過于復雜,再說領導未必真解說得那么詳細,他所知道的就是長官讓他后撤,到底為什么后撤他并不清楚。uWn歷史春秋網 - 專注于中國古代歷史

                好,大家轉回頭走路。他們知道,晉軍就在他們背后,隨時可能向自己沖鋒,這種想法自然會讓他們覺得危險。可以想象,他們中某些人很容易加快步伐,越想身后有許多晉軍,可能就走得越快。自己還有老婆孩子呢,可不能隨便死了。他們一加快腳步,周圍的人也就不由自主地跟著加快速度。而眼看著周圍的人越走越快,大家心里自然也越來越恐懼。這是一個糟糕的正反饋,不難料想,如果任由這個正反饋發展,結局一定是大家集體奔跑。uWn歷史春秋網 - 專注于中國古代歷史

                按理說,應該有外力來打斷這個正反饋,這個外力就是指揮官。但是前面已經說過,面對如此紛雜的編制,如此龐大的人員,指揮官也很難應對。當時沒有什么像樣的通訊措施,除了軍旗、號鼓,就是靠人喊。基層指揮官和高級指揮官很難聯絡,加上語言障礙,那就更難了。基層指揮官很可能也不理解事態發展:晉軍是不是打過來了?自己這邊是不是已經戰敗了?現在是后撤還是敗退?他自己很可能也被卷到這個洪流中,正奮不顧身往前奔呢。

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